New data exclusively provided by Cox Automotive to Van Reviewer predicts that the market for new vans will reach 320,380 registrations by the end of 2025, a decline on last year’s numbers.
If markets sales of new vans were to meet the forecase that would mean a year-on-year decline of 11.3%.
Used vans, however, have a more positive outlook, with Cox Automotive predicting a transactions forecast total of 999,678. Although this represents a 0.9% decline compared to 2024, it is 11.9% above 2019 levels, illustrating the substantial shift between the two markets since 2020.
Buyers have increasingly opted for reasonably priced used vans over new models, as doubts in the health of the economy, stubbornly high interest rates and high inflation continue.
Speaking about the forecast, Matthew Davock, director of commercial vehicles at Manheim UK said: “Higher mileage vehicles continue to present a challenge for valuations due to extended fleet replacement cycles and a greater variation in condition.
"Similarly, the imbalance between supply and demand for some segments, particularly in the small van and 4x4 pickup segments, may continue to impact values in the coming months. Currently, the forecast residual values in the used van market have been revised down by an average of 1.5% compared with the previous month, reflecting typical seasonal trends and economic uncertainty.
“As a business, however, Manheim Auction Services is outperforming the market averages. We’re seeing strong conversion rates (84% in H1), growth in vans sold (16% year-on-year), a 12% improvement in van mileages and a 4% uplift in average age.”
Electrification of the light commercial vehicle market continues to be a major point of interest.
Electric van registrations rose by 55.5% year to date, with 15,954 zero emission vans registered. Electric vans now account for 8.8% of the new van market, however, the total is still far behind the ZEV mandate target of 16% market share for 2025.
In the used market, electric van values are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, retail hesitancy, and cost barriers compared with diesel and petrol models.
While electric van arrivals have increased, with sold volumes of electric vans increasing by 61% year-on-year across Manheim auctions, the market for used electric vans will only mature once pricing becomes competitive with internal combustion engine alternatives.
Davock continues: “The used electric van market is a mixed picture. Demand for these vehicles is increasing, and we are seeing an increase in volumes across our sites, but adoption remains below the government’s mandated market share as buyer confidence remains challenged.”
He added: “Concerns such as carry capacity and range anxiety continue to hinder further adoption. The values of these vehicles are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, buyer hesitancy and higher running costs.”
To help support the adoption of electric vans, the government has confirmed that the plug-in van grant will remain until April 2027. It is hoped that this will encourage electric van adoption, despite infrastructure and grid connection delays causing concern for buyers.
