The government could need to revisit the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate for vans as early as next year.
Peter Golding, MD at the fleet software provider FleetCheck is predicting that electric van sales in the first quarter of 2025 were less than half what was needed, and believes there's no reason they will improve soon.
“The zero emissions target for the van market this year is 16% but even the best sales month we have seen so far has not exceeded 10%. There would have to be a decisive shift through Q2 to Q4 to hit the government’s target and there is no sign such a change is coming.
All European countries must been strict levels of electric vehicle sales, but the UK has implemented its own tougher levels.
The targets for the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate will also increase substantially each year, as pressure ramps up on manufacturers to sell more and more electric vehicles ahead of the deadline.
“For 2026, the target increases to 24% and again, it’s almost impossible to conceive that the market is going to gain the necessary momentum to get anywhere near that figure," Golding continues.
“The potential shortfall fines to manufacturers are now £15,000 per unit but the government insists that these will not need to be paid because of inbuilt flexibilities, including recent changes to allow trading off car versus van sales, but that’s just storing up further pressures for the future. It’s an exercise in can kicking, not a solution.”
By revising the ZEV Mandate once, the government had already established that it would act to balance the health of the motor industry against its environmental policies.
It has also set a new precedent that the targets can be moveable, back-tracking on its previously tough stance.
“It’s clearly a positive that the government has listened and made some changes to the ZEV Mandate regulations but it also establishes a principle that they will make modifications to protect manufacturers and the wider sector. Having done this once, it seems probable they would do it again," Golding says.
He continues: “By next year, it seems likely that it will become clear the gap between the real van market and ZEV Mandate projections are unbridgeable, and that further action will have to be taken. The underlying fault line which, to be fair, is one the government inherited, is that the ZEV Mandate is supply side based, when what the electric van market needs is a boost to demand.”
Additionally, Golding added, there were some signs that zero emissions projects in general were potentially going to become a more prominent political issue.
“It may be that, in a year or so, a further relaxation of the ZEV Mandate could be something that this Labour administration perceives as not just sound industrial policy for the motor industry, but also something that has political value.”
