Electric vans won't be any more popular this year

The Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate will require manufacturers to sell 16% of all their LCVs this year to be electric.

That’s a 6% increase on 2024’s target of 10% and a significant step up in what is already a tough ask.

Speaking to OEMs last year, many were happy with their electric van sales, but there was a degree of horse trading going on behind the scenes. This meant pulling credits forwards and backwards, left and right, and in some cases buying them from competitors in order to meet the requirement.

Adding a further 6% isn’t going to be easy, in fact, I’m fairly confident the market - which according to statistics from the SMMT saw electric van sales plateau in 2024 - will actually shrink.

Below are the targets for the ZEV Mandate going forward, which increase by 6%, 8% and 10% with each passing year.

Reaching the 10% target (assuming most manufacturers have, which they definitely haven’t) has stretched and challenged manufacturers to the point of breaking.

While 6% might not seem a lot, it actually represents a significant number. That’s in the region of 20,000 additional electric van sales, if the market size remains the same.

Some manufacturers may manage their 16% easily - Maxus for example (simple because of the make-up of their product offerings) will likely be in great shape. But others face an uphill battle simply because they’ve already gone to their big customers and got them to purchase vans in order to meet the 2024 targets.

Those that sell seriously large volumes, the Ford, Mercedes and Stellantis brands are surely on a tight rope already. That will likely mean either combustion models become harder to get, harming overall profitability (unlikely), or that these EV targets are simply missed, and allocation is borrowed from sales in future years.

That’s the reason why I think electric van sales will not increase this year. Manufacturers won’t and can’t find the customers, and the system will allow them to borrow against the future.

Some electric van models will likely be widely successfully. I’m expecting big things from the Ford E-Transit Custom, and Renault’s surely going to capitalise on the Renault Master E-Tech. Mercedes has the chance to convert many of its fleet customers with the Mercedes-Benz eSprinter, and I dare say upgraded batteries and range will entice a few loyalists to the large vans from Fiat, Vauxhall et al.

But… it’s not going to be mind blowing numbers, and when you look at the simple maths, if 30,000 vans are sold every month, close to 5,000 of those will have to be electric.

it’s a number I don’t believe the manufacturers can supply or sell, and a number that the industry can’t support.