Ford's dominance defies new van market crash

We've just about reached the halfway point in the year and if you're Ford you're likely to be pretty happy.

We've already got the results for the first five months of van sales and the market has been in something of a freefall.

Despite van sales being down consistently throughout every month this year, electric vans are doing well. Sales are up for the seventh month in a row, but despite registrations accounting for 8.2% of the total vehicles sold they're still lagging behind the numbers needed to meet the government ZEV Mandate of 16% this year.

Looking at individual models, Ford's dominance in the LCV market continues and despite manufacturers all trying to keep up, especially by launching new electric models, I really don't see their dominance fading.

The Transit Custom and Transit models securing the top two spots for both May and year-to-date registrations. In fact the Ford Transit Custom has a massive 20,271 registrations year-to-date, nearly double that of the Transit.

However, the performance of specific models within the wider context of declining LCV registrations shows us an interesting picture of the overall market.

The Ford Ranger, despite its strong third-place in the year-to-date rankings, likely felt the impact of the recent tax changes affecting pick-ups. It dropped to sixth in May.

Similarly, the Toyota Hilux, while showing resilience with a fourth-place finish in May, will also likely face reduced volume going forward. It only just manages to squeak into the top 10 in ninth position and come year end that place will certainly be in doubt. Interest in the new Toyota Hilux 48V might keep it in contention, but unless government changes its mind on the BIK classification for pickups, it will likely to fall further down the sales charts.

However, I don't see the Ranger undergoing quite the same fate. Despite it being a far more traditional BIK tax-dodge vehicle, Rangers have fully integrated themselves into all walks of life. The Hilux will suffer from the taxation change as buyers keep these "indestructible" machines for longer, but also shun the relatively low-spec "luxury" models.

Ford on the other hand have such a range from working models like XL and Tremor, to posh pickups like the Ranger Platinum and even the Ford Ranger Raptor that I think they will continue to appeal to everyone.

I'm surprised to see two small vans doing well in the list. The Peugeot Partner and Citroën Berlingo are performing relatively well, securing third and seventh positions respectively in May, and maintaining strong year-to-date standings of sixth and seventh.

They're certainly amongst the best small vans on the market, but once volumes of the Ford Transit Courier start to hit these shores, such is the ability of the range (not to mention its small footprint but big volume capacity), it will win many fans. I can therefore see yet another Ford vehicle elbowing its way to the fore.

That will leave four Ford products, the Transit Custom, Transit, Ranger and Courier all at the upper ends of the top 10, but where will it leave the others.

The Vauxhall Vivaro, despite a solid year-to-date performance at fourth, slipped to ninth in May. I can see the copycat clones from the Stellantis van range continue to juggle position with Vivaro (traditionally seen as a British van, but not after the closure of the Vauxhall Luton plant) being most damaged by the fickle nature of consumers hunting for the cheapest version of this van.

The Renault Trafic also saw a slight dip in May, ending in tenth place, but holds a stronger eighth position year-to-date, while it's the weakest of the Renault products, I would expect to see more of their vans creeping into the top ten as the months and years progress.

An honourable mention must go to the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter. It's resilience in the top ten of both the monthly and year to date rankings shows that it is a popular van that transcends trends. I don't see that changing. But, it's also good to see the Volkswagen Crafter in tenth position overall. Both these big vans (as well as the Transit) are unique in that they are built by the van manufacturers for themselves and themselves alone - there is an MAN TGE version of the Crafter, but I'll let that slide to help make the point.

So an interesting month, but a month that reflects the changing balance of the wider market. Let's see how well these predictions age.