Today's least surprising news is that Stellantis will stop its hydrogen fuel cell development programme.
All I can say is, I'm not surprised.
This isn't a case of "I told you so", because I've actually been a big fan of several of the hydrogen projects that OEMs have undertaken, but the news comes as absolutely no surprise when you look at how much electric vans are also struggling to sell.
Stellantis was one of the first manufacturers to put a hydrogen van out there in the market. Not long after the merger of PSA and Fiat-Chrysler, they announced that Opel/Vauxhall would take the lead on the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
In 2022, I went to a presentation of the Vauxhall Vivaro-e Hydrogen and was impressed by the solution, and encouraged by its "relative" affordability.
I went to a filling station and filled up the van with good-for-the-environment "green" hydrogen, made from renewable energy. The fill-up cost a fraction more than diesel would have, but the van wouldn't go as far, so in reality it was more expensive to fuel and as much as twice the price to buy. Not a great start, but it was early days.
Fast-forward two years and Stellantis has several thousand of test miles under its belt with customers in Europe, so they decide to launch a large van using the same principles. The Vauxhall Movano Hydrogen will help improve the economies of scale and make hydrogen fuel cell production more viable. Or at least that was the plan.
In the meantime, Renault had launched its own hydrogen project. Hyvia planned to have a much larger fuel cell on board, and created a rather ugly concept on the previous generation Renault Master platform. It planned to then incorporate the fuel tanks and fuel cell into the chassis of the new Master platform (the same as the Renault Master E-Tech) and have a multi-fuel platform for its large vans. That idea lasted less than two years, as Hyvia fell into bankruptcy late last year.
Well, firstly the technology wasn't cheap. Development costs and production costs meant that it was always going to be a niche interest product.
The war in Ukraine didn't help either. The rapid increase in energy prices meant that hydrogen costs sky-rocketed, and they've not come down since.
Infrastructure is of course a massive issue. Without somewhere to fill up with hydrogen, no sane customer is going to buy a hydrogen fuel cell van. Hyvia wanted to overcome this by offering compact electrolysers thanks to their partnership with Plug, but the cost, economies of scale and number of vehicles needed to make that viable were always unlikely for anyone outside of a Blue Chip organisation.
Finally, and this is the real reason, I think its failed. There's a huge general apathy towards going green.
Fleets are experimenting, but when faced with a (ball park) £100,000 capital cost for a hydrogen van and its annual fuel, or a £50,000 cost for an almost identical large electric van, even the most well-intentioned business will opt for the cheaper solution - especially as both result in a zero-emission vehicle.
Electric van sales are increasing, but they're only doing so because of incentives and zero-emission contract tender requirements. The majority of van buyers aren't ready to go electric yet, and hydrogen certainly isn't on their radar.
If companies are being forced to go green, they will still opt for the cheapest green solution, and that's not hydrogen.
There aren't many options left in the market. Toyota is the last great hope to get a hydrogen fuel cell into commercial production in the LCV space.
Their partnership with JCB has seen them develop a Toyota Hilux Fuel Cell pick-up truck, but at the same time they've pulled out of hydrogen fuel cell production in other divisions, like passenger cars.
I don't think hydrogen will fall off the radar completely, but this is certainly a huge nail in the coffin for hydrogen in automotive. Instead, I think we will continue to see small scale projects crop up, and fade away, until perhaps eventually something takes off.
Mass hydrogen uptake requires an energy surplus. Hydrogen is a great way of storing energy, but Europe and the UK are in an energy deficit. Until renewable energy supplies are massively increased hydrogen simply doesn't make sense, as it takes more energy to produce than simply using the electricity.
When, or if, the time comes that we have more energy than we know what to do with, hydrogen storage and hydrogen fuel cells will become relevant once again.
Once it passes the test for industrial or even domestic use, it may eventually become an options again for automotive.
